Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
